The 2026 Florida 28th congressional district race between incumbent Republican Carlos Giménez and Democrat Phil Ehr shows tight trader pricing on the top candidates amid a broader Republican structural edge. Fundraising remains competitive, with both sides reporting substantial cash on hand ahead of the November 3 general election. The district's partisan lean, shaped by prior redistricting and consistent Republican performance in recent cycles, underpins expectations for a double-digit Republican margin, though limited recent polling and the presence of an independent candidate introduce some uncertainty. National midterm dynamics, voter turnout patterns in key Miami-Dade and Monroe County areas, and any late shifts in campaign messaging could narrow or widen the final result before resolution.