**Recent Italian polling aggregates show Futuro Nazionale consistently ahead of Lega, with the new party founded by Roberto Vannacci in February 2026 typically registering 6.7–7.8% support versus Lega’s 4.8–6% in October surveys.** This gap has held through multiple institutes despite minor recent softening for both parties and Lega’s ongoing internal strains ahead of its late-October congress. Vannacci’s movement, which split from Lega and draws from right-wing and abstentionist voters, has maintained its edge in the run-up to the next general election due by December 2027. Traders appear to view the structural polling differential and Lega’s limited recovery as durable factors supporting the high implied probability that Futuro Nazionale will outpoll its former affiliate.