Incumbent Kuomintang Mayor Chang San-cheng holds an 83.5% implied probability in the Taoyuan mayoral race, ahead of Democratic Progressive Party challenger Huang Shih-chieh at 16.5%, as traders price in his re-election prospects ahead of the November 28, 2026, vote. Only these two candidates completed registration in early September for the mayoral contest, confirming a direct KMT-DPP matchup. A late-September poll showed Chang leading 47% to 25.9% with 58% satisfaction in his performance on infrastructure and local policies, plus higher name recognition. His incumbency advantage and consistent polling edge since earlier surveys have anchored market positioning, while Huang’s lower visibility limits momentum. The ballot draw scheduled for October 23 and any final campaign events remain the primary near-term variables before election-day resolution.