Chen Ting-fei, the Democratic Progressive Party nominee with extensive local experience and grassroots networks, holds a dominant position in the November 28, 2026, Tainan mayoral race, reflected in trader consensus around 90 percent implied probability. Recent candidate registration and Central Election Commission qualification reviews confirmed the field of four main contenders, including KMT legislator Hsieh Lung-chieh and independents, with no major disqualifications or late shifts. President Lai Ching-te’s public endorsement and expectations for a strong DPP showing have reinforced Chen’s lead in available polling and campaign momentum, while opposition efforts at coalition-building remain fragmented. Lower probabilities for other listed candidates align with limited name recognition and support in a contest where turnout and base mobilization will determine final margins.