Recent polling averages show Democrat Janelle Stelson holding a narrow lead over Republican incumbent Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District, with margins of roughly 2–3 points across multiple surveys conducted through mid-October. This rematch of the 2024 contest, which Perry won by about 1.2 points, has tightened amid voter concerns over inflation, gas prices, and the ongoing conflict involving Iran, issues highlighted in their Oct. 14 debate. Stelson has outraised Perry and benefited from shifts in forecaster ratings toward Lean Democratic, while the district’s underlying partisan lean and national midterm dynamics have contributed to trader consensus pricing Stelson as the clear favorite. Early voting and mail ballot requests remain key variables ahead of the Nov. 3 election.