Recent final polls ahead of Israel's October 27 election project the Joint List at roughly 8-9 seats, placing its implied vote share near or just above 7 percent amid consistent polling averages. Traders assign the highest probability to a 7.5 percent or greater outcome, reflecting the list's stable position above the 3.25 percent threshold despite legal challenges that briefly threatened its participation before Supreme Court reinstatement. Arab voter turnout remains a key variable that could shift the result, as does the list's separation from Ra'am and competition for the Arab vote. Historical patterns show Arab parties often underperform polls when turnout lags, keeping the 6.5-7.5 percent and 4.5-5.5 percent bands as secondary trader consensus outcomes.