Recent polling averages place Likud in the low-to-mid 20s, with individual surveys ranging from 19 to 26 seats ahead of the October 27 Knesset election. The party’s support has fluctuated modestly amid bloc-level dynamics, where Netanyahu-aligned parties average near 49–53 seats and the main opposition bloc hovers around 50–54, leaving both short of the 61-seat majority. Key recent factors include Benny Gantz’s withdrawal from the race, the failure of smaller lists such as People of Israel to clear the threshold, and last-minute endorsements or withdrawals that slightly bolstered Likud in some surveys. Voter certainty among Likud supporters remains comparatively high, while the overall race stays fragmented with no clear path to a stable coalition. These patterns align with the market’s emphasis on the 20–24 seat band as the most probable outcome range.