Recent polling averages ahead of Israel's October 27 Knesset election show neither the pro-Netanyahu bloc (Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism, Religious Zionism, Otzma Yehudit) nor the main opposition parties (Yashar, B'Yachad, Democrats, Yisrael Beytenu) reaching the 61 seats required for a majority in the 120-seat legislature. Latest surveys place the outgoing coalition partners at roughly 48–55 seats and opposition forces near 51–54, with several small lists hovering near or below the 3.25% threshold and Arab parties holding seats that neither side has consistently courted. Surplus-vote pacts and last-minute maneuvering have not closed the gap in published data. These consistent shortfalls, combined with structural barriers to broad coalitions, underpin the current trader consensus reflected in the elevated probability on no majority outcome.