Recent polling trends position Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by Ofer Winter and contesting the October 27 Knesset election, as a threshold risk. Multiple October surveys, including those from Channel 12 and Kan, place its projected support at 1.5–1.8 percent, below the 3.25 percent electoral threshold required for Knesset entry, though some earlier or optimistic polls reached four or five seats. The party's late August launch, competition from established right-wing lists such as Religious Zionism–Zehut and Otzma Yehudit, a candidate withdrawal in mid-October, and absence of surplus-vote agreements have contributed to the tight range around the threshold. Trader consensus reflects these factors, with the highest probability assigned to outcomes under 2.5 percent while allowing for modest upside if turnout or late shifts favor the list.