Amcha Yisrael, the new right-wing party led by retired Brigadier General Ofer Winter, faces a high risk of falling short of the Knesset’s 3.25% electoral threshold in the October 27 election, aligning with the market’s 59% probability for fewer than four seats. Recent polls show its support averaging near 2.9–4.1 seats, with several October surveys placing it at 1.5–2.7% and others at exactly four mandates. A October 13 withdrawal by candidate Davidi Ben-Zion, citing vote-splitting concerns and backed by statements from Benjamin Netanyahu and Bezalel Smotrich, has underscored fragmentation risks within the right-wing camp. Traders price the 4–6 seat band at 33% due to occasional polling crossings, while outcomes above six seats remain negligible given consistent competition from established parties like Otzma Yehudit and Religious Zionism. The nine-day timeline to voting limits scope for major shifts.