The cancellation of the scheduled September 26, 2026, Abbotsford-Mission by-election following Premier David Eby’s call for a snap provincial general election on October 24 has left the market without a clear resolution path. Original Conservative leader Kerry-Lynne Findlay and NDP candidate Pam Alexis no longer contest the same event, with the riding now featuring a new Conservative nominee, Darryl Kropp, alongside Alexis, Lakhwinder Jhaj of CentreBC, and minor-party candidates. Internal Conservative caucus departures and the shift to a broader ballot have fragmented support and introduced procedural uncertainty. Traders assign low implied probabilities to named individuals because any future by-election remains unscheduled, with the market defaulting toward “Other” absent a confirmed vote by the March 2027 resolution deadline. Upcoming advance polls and the October 24 general election outcome could still alter positioning if they trigger renewed vacancy proceedings.