**US President Donald Trump’s confirmed attendance at the November 2026 ASEAN Summit in Manila provides the primary driver for the elevated trader consensus on a bilateral meeting with Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. by year-end.** Malacañang and the White House announced in mid-October that Trump will participate in the 49th ASEAN Summit and related meetings on November 16, marking his first visit to the Philippines as president since 2017. Reports indicate the trip is expected to include bilateral discussions on defense cooperation, trade, investment, and regional security, including the South China Sea. The leaders last held an in-person meeting at the White House in July 2025 and a follow-up phone call in July 2026, establishing a pattern of direct engagement. With the summit occurring well before the December 31, 2026 resolution date and no reported obstacles to a leader-level encounter during the gathering, the implied probability reflects the straightforward diplomatic calendar and ongoing alliance priorities between the two countries.