Ongoing diplomatic channels between the US and Cuba, including recent bilateral exchanges aimed at identifying areas for cooperation on security and bilateral issues, have supported trader expectations of no direct military clash in 2026. President Trump has publicly stated a preference for a deal with Havana and assessed that military action is unlikely to be required. Economic pressure through the long-standing embargo, energy restrictions, and sanctions continues as the primary approach, while a February 2026 speedboat incursion by non-state actors led only to Cuban terrorism charges without triggering interstate conflict. Verbal exchanges at the UN ahead of the annual embargo resolution vote have not escalated to military planning or deployment. This combination of sustained communication and avoidance of direct confrontation underpins the 85% implied probability assigned to no clash.