Aleksandar Vučić’s United Serbia list leads the October 25 snap parliamentary election market at 71.5 percent implied probability, reflecting traders’ assessment of the Serbian Progressive Party’s sustained institutional advantages after more than 14 years in power. The vote was triggered when Vučić resigned the presidency in September to seek the prime minister role, shifting focus to parliamentary arithmetic in a single nationwide constituency where seats are allocated proportionally with a 3 percent threshold. The main challenger, the Student List–Students Win, sits at 28 percent after channeling nearly two years of anti-corruption protests sparked by the 2024 Novi Sad station collapse. Large student rallies and fragmented traditional opposition have narrowed the gap in some surveys, yet concerns over voter-register irregularities and media environment support the current pricing. Minor lists remain near zero or 50 percent pending final vote shares.