Recent polling averages position the Green Party as the clear frontrunner for third place in the November 7, 2026, New Zealand general election, with support holding in the 13–16 percent range across multiple surveys. This places Greens ahead of New Zealand First and ACT, both clustered near 10 percent, while the two major parties remain closely matched around 28–29 percent. Minor shifts in the latest 1News Verian and Taxpayers’ Union–Curia polls have not altered this ordering, and the short remaining campaign window limits scope for rapid changes. Trader consensus reflected in current pricing aligns with these vote-share trends under the MMP system, where consistent minor-party differentials determine finishing order.