Yu Shu-chen’s KMT nomination as Jian Township mayor, secured after an internal party survey in March 2026, underpins her dominant trader positioning in the November 28 Hualien County magistrate race. Hualien’s longstanding pan-blue electoral base favors the party’s official candidate and ground organization, while independents Wei Chia-hsien, Chang Chun, and Yeh Yao-hui split potential support among overlapping constituencies. Recent October polling from local outlets shows Yu leading three-way matchups by double-digit margins, consistent with the market’s implied probabilities. The fragmented field and absence of major late disruptions reinforce the current consensus ahead of ballot-number drawing and the final campaign period.