Florida's 2026 U.S. House map, enacted via mid-decade redistricting under Gov. Ron DeSantis, sought to shift the delegation toward a 24-4 Republican advantage by altering boundaries in multiple districts previously held or targeted by Democrats. Despite this, ratings from outlets like the Cook Political Report classify several contests as toss-ups or leans, including FL-14 (incumbent Kathy Castor), the open FL-22, FL-25 (Jared Moskowitz), and challenges to Republican incumbents in FL-13 and FL-27. Polling in these races shows narrow margins or ties, reflecting local candidate dynamics and the broader national environment. With early voting underway ahead of the November 3 election, traders price a wide distribution of Democratic seat totals because outcomes in these four to six competitive districts remain fluid and interdependent.