Recent polling averages place Republican incumbent Ashley Moody ahead of Democratic challenger Angie Nixon by roughly six points in the November 3 special election for Florida’s Senate seat, consistent with the state’s Republican registration edge and Moody’s advantages in cash on hand and Trump endorsement. Nixon has narrowed gaps through strong small-dollar fundraising, primary momentum, and appeals on affordability and housing that resonate with younger, urban, and minority voters. The distribution of margin probabilities around three to nine points reflects uncertainty over final turnout models and the impact of early voting already underway. Late advertising, weekend get-out-the-vote efforts, or shifts among independents could widen or compress the result before Election Day.