Recent polls from multiple agencies, including Gallup, Alpha Research, Trend, and Market Links conducted in mid-to-late October 2026, show incumbent President Iliana Iotova and running mate Kiril Valchev holding a lead of roughly 13-18 points over Andrey Gyurov and Georgi Kandev among decided voters, with support for Iotova in the low-to-mid 40s percent. This positioning underpins trader consensus around a 10-20% first-round margin for Iotova ahead of the October 25 vote. Low projected turnout near 39-40% makes an outright majority unlikely under Bulgarian rules, while Iotova benefits from backing by Progressive Bulgaria, the BSP, and institutional visibility as acting president. Gyurov draws support from reform-oriented parties, and third-place Vazrazhdane candidates trail further behind. The campaign has centered on security concerns linked to regional conflicts, with the gap between frontrunners narrowing modestly but remaining consistent across surveys.