Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a Democratic sweep of Congress after the November 3, 2026 midterms at 66.5%, reflecting sustained momentum from President Trump’s record-low approval ratings near 31-36% amid an ongoing Iran conflict, elevated gas prices, and inflation pressures. Generic ballot leads of 8-9 points for Democrats have translated into strong positioning for House control above 90% and Senate control near 65-68%, with the GOP’s narrow majorities and exposed Senate map amplifying vulnerabilities in competitive races. Recent polling shifts and Cook Political Report adjustments have reinforced expectations of Democratic gains, while markets discount Republican retention of both chambers to just 7.5% given limited time before Election Day for reversal.