Kris Mayes holds a commanding position in the 2026 Arizona attorney general race as the Democratic incumbent seeking a second term against Republican state Senate President Warren Petersen, with ballots already distributed and early voting active ahead of the November 3 contest. Recent polling averages and forecasts show Mayes ahead by roughly 5 to 13 points, reflecting her established record on consumer protection and criminal enforcement alongside a substantial fundraising lead. Petersen secured his nomination in the July Republican primary but faces structural headwinds in a state where Democratic statewide candidates have performed competitively in recent cycles. The market's strong consensus around Mayes aligns with these indicators of incumbency advantage and voter preference trends, while Petersen's lower implied probability reflects the challenges typical for challengers in this office.