Traders assign overwhelming probability to ACA premium tax credits lapsing without extension alongside a Democratic House majority after the 2026 midterms. This positioning reflects Republican control of the White House and Congress following 2024, where budget reconciliation priorities and spending restraint have left little room for renewing the enhanced subsidies set to expire after 2025. Historical midterm patterns, in which the president's party typically loses House seats, further support expectations of Democratic gains sufficient for majority control. The slim Republican outcome share accounts for the possibility of unified GOP retention of the chamber. Developments that could alter these odds include a surprise lame-duck extension vote, major shifts in polling aggregates driven by economic data or candidate retirements, or late-session procedural changes that reopen subsidy negotiations before the election.