Diplomatic tensions over Israeli settlements in the West Bank and related sanctions have prompted threats and lower-level actions, yet no country has expelled an Israeli ambassador in recent weeks. The UK reached a last-minute October agreement with Israel to downgrade rather than close its East Jerusalem consulate, averting threatened reciprocal expulsions of dozens of diplomats. South Africa declared Israel's chargé d'affaires persona non grata in mid-October, prompting a matching Israeli response, but neither nation maintains an ambassador in the other capital. Ireland's government has publicly ruled out such a step despite domestic calls. These patterns of negotiation over escalation, combined with the short window to year-end, underpin traders' strong consensus against any ambassador expulsion by December 31.