US-mediated military talks between Israel and Lebanon in Florida, which began October 20, have become the central driver of trader assessments around potential Israeli strikes on Greater Beirut. Israeli officials have accused the Lebanese army of failing to dismantle Hezbollah infrastructure or seize weapons, while reporting Hezbollah efforts to relocate assets and rebuild capabilities in Beirut suburbs amid stalled disarmament. Lebanese representatives have pressed for an end to southern operations and phased withdrawals under the existing framework. Ongoing IDF strikes in southern Lebanon, combined with Hezbollah training and tunnel discoveries near the capital, sustain uncertainty about escalation timelines, though no qualifying strikes on Beirut have occurred in recent weeks. Scheduled follow-up discussions and Lebanese army enforcement actions remain key near-term factors.