Israel's airspace has remained open to civilian operations throughout October 2026 despite persistent regional tensions with Iran and proxy groups, following repeated closures and reopenings earlier in the year tied to missile exchanges and U.S.-Israeli strikes. Official assessments as of mid-October describe the Tel Aviv FIR as operational under controlled restrictions and elevated caution advisories from EASA and other regulators through November, with risks centered on potential short-notice disruptions rather than sustained closures. Recent measures, including a temporary ban on certain drones announced October 13, reflect targeted security responses without triggering full airspace shutdowns. Traders price the "No" outcome at 94.5 percent based on this pattern of managed volatility and absence of new escalatory triggers within the October 15-31 window.