Recent diplomatic signals have positioned China as the overwhelming market favorite for a potential Trump-Putin meeting. In an October 9 call, Putin proposed a trilateral summit with Trump and Xi Jinping to address Ukraine, suggesting it occur alongside the November APEC leaders’ summit in Shenzhen. Trump has expressed openness to such a gathering, primarily for denuclearization talks, while envoy Steve Witkoff’s October 21 discussions in St. Petersburg reinforced the China option. These developments coincide with U.S. moves to ease sanctions and facilitate Russian diesel exports, reflecting warming bilateral ties. The 79.5% implied probability on China captures this momentum, while the 15.5% on no meeting by year-end reflects remaining uncertainty over scheduling and agenda details. Lower-priced alternatives lack comparable recent catalysts.