Traders assign a 99.4% probability against Ukraine signing a peace deal with Russia by October 31 because the most recent diplomatic developments place any substantive talks after that date. On October 21, Russian President Vladimir Putin agreed in principle to resume trilateral technical negotiations with the United States and Ukraine starting on or after November 10, potentially in Abu Dhabi, focused on postwar security arrangements. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has signaled openness to freezing the conflict along current lines with future guarantees, yet Moscow has offered no immediate concessions on territory, NATO accession, or a ceasefire. Missile strikes on Ukrainian cities continue, and both sides remain far apart on core issues. A completed agreement within the next week would require an unprecedented acceleration of positions that have shown no such movement.