**Sustained interior enforcement and elevated arrest volumes have positioned formal ICE removals for calendar 2026 near the 400-500k range that traders favor at 66%.** Through mid-July in fiscal year 2026, agency data showed roughly 356,000 removals, a pace analysts project could reach or slightly exceed the modern-era high of about 438,000 set in FY 2013. Monthly arrests hit records near 43,000–51,000 in summer 2026, supported by expanded detention capacity, though daily averages remain far below the 3,000 target once discussed for a one-million annual goal. Logistical constraints, court processing, and resource limits continue to cap totals below campaign pledges, while self-deportation claims are tracked separately from formal removals. Upcoming fiscal-year closeout and any late-year operational shifts could still adjust final calendar counts within the leading bracket.