Israeli intelligence assessments shared with US officials in recent days indicate Hamas has no plans to voluntarily disarm and is instead rebuilding its military capabilities in Gaza, including restoring tunnel networks and maintaining 30,000–40,000 operatives. Prime Minister Netanyahu has rejected the Trump administration’s 15-point Board of Peace roadmap, stating Israeli forces will not withdraw until Hamas completes full decommissioning of all weapons. Hamas has reaffirmed conditional acceptance of phased disarmament linked to withdrawal and international guarantees but is seeking amendments to the terms, including amnesty provisions and sequencing adjustments. Negotiations remain stalled one year after the initial ceasefire framework, with limited reconstruction underway and ongoing Israeli operations in parts of the enclave. Upcoming diplomatic meetings involving US envoys and regional mediators could influence the timeline for any concrete commitments.
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