Ongoing disputes over disarmament sequencing, Israeli territorial control beyond agreed lines, and stalled reconstruction under the Board of Peace have kept the October 2025 U.S.-brokered ceasefire fragile yet intact more than a year later. Israel has reported dozens of violations by Hamas-linked groups since early October 2026 while conducting targeted strikes on operatives, and it has blocked initial Board of Peace facilities pending its own October 27 elections. Hamas has conditioned any weapons handover on full Israeli withdrawal, which has not occurred, leaving commercial aid flows disrupted and the National Committee for Gaza administration barred from operating inside the territory. These implementation gaps, combined with continued low-level violence and upcoming Israeli voting, shape trader assessments of formal cancellation risks.