Recent regional conflicts, including the 2026 Iran war and Houthi attacks, have cooled prospects for major Arab states such as Saudi Arabia, which continues to link normalization to a credible Palestinian state process and awaits Israel's October 2026 elections. A Council for a Secure America report released October 8, 2026, ranked Kuwait as the likeliest candidate after its ruler strengthened ties with the UAE and United States, with Israel's ambassador to the UAE stating in September that accession could occur within four to six months; Lebanon and Syria ranked next but face significant obstacles including Hezbollah disarmament and Golan Heights disputes. Kazakhstan's November 2025 announcement remains largely symbolic given preexisting diplomatic ties, with a formal ceremony still pending. With only weeks remaining until the end of 2026, these timelines and persistent diplomatic conditions underpin trader consensus favoring no new full accession.