The impasse over sequencing Hamas disarmament and Israeli withdrawal continues to stall Phase II of the US-brokered Gaza ceasefire agreement that took effect in October 2025. Israel, under Prime Minister Netanyahu, maintains that full verifiable disarmament of all weapons must precede any further IDF pullback or governance transition to the National Committee for the Administration of Gaza, rejecting the Board of Peace's July 2026 phased roadmap accepted by Hamas. This has blocked reconstruction projects, International Stabilization Force deployment, and NCAG operations inside Gaza, while the IDF reports ongoing violations and has expanded territorial control. Israeli elections scheduled for October 27 represent the nearest near-term catalyst that could shift negotiating positions or maintain the current deadlock, amid continued mediator efforts by the US, Egypt, Qatar, and Turkey.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedView resolved

Beware of external links.
Beware of external links.
Frequently Asked Questions