US intelligence assessments conclude that Beijing does not currently plan a Taiwan invasion by 2027 and views amphibious operations as high-risk with substantial failure potential, especially amid potential US intervention. Trader consensus at 90.5% for “No” aligns with this view, reflecting sustained Chinese gray-zone tactics such as air and naval patrols, coast guard incursions, and maritime militia activity rather than preparations for kinetic unification. Recent diplomatic engagement, including Xi-Trump discussions on Taiwan, and Taiwan’s rising defense spending plus joint exercises with the US and Japan have further contained escalation risks. While military drills continue and influence operations target upcoming local elections, these steps support long-term coercion over immediate conflict through the resolution window.