The new enrolment deadline of 25 October, which bars voters from registering during the advance or election-day periods, stands as the dominant factor shaping expectations for turnout in the 7 November general election. This procedural shift, enacted in 2025, ends a long-standing practice that previously captured hundreds of thousands of late enrolments, disproportionately affecting younger and more mobile demographics where current rates sit notably below other age cohorts. Advance voting begins the following day amid an intensifying campaign with multiple leaders’ debates and a closely contested race between the major parties. Traders appear to weigh these barriers against the potential mobilising effect of high-stakes coalition dynamics and standard advance-voting uptake, keeping the implied probability clustered around the 76–82 percent range.