Recent inflation data and imported price pressures have positioned a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate increase as the dominant market-implied outcome for the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s October 28 decision. The September quarter CPI eased to 3.7% year-over-year from 4.1%, yet core measures firmed while surging oil prices and New Zealand dollar weakness raised risks of inflation exceeding 4% in the fourth quarter. Most major bank economists now forecast the hike from the current 2.75% level, citing these factors as outweighing the headline moderation and aligning with the 82% implied probability. The RBNZ’s chief economist has described the meeting as wide open but with an upward bias, leaving scope for further tightening into December if external pressures persist.