Recent upward pressures on New Zealand inflation from elevated oil prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar have reinforced the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s tightening bias following the September 2.75% official cash rate hike. With annual CPI at 4.1% in the June quarter and September data due October 22, markets price a 25-basis-point December increase as the leading outcome at 56.5% implied probability, reflecting expectations of gradual removal of stimulus to return inflation toward the 2% midpoint. The 42% odds on no change highlight data dependence and uncertainty around the October 28 review, where the central bank has signaled flexibility between holding and hiking amid mixed bank forecasts for year-end policy. The December Monetary Policy Statement will incorporate updated projections, making incoming labor and price data key swing factors.