Recent polls from Research & Polling and SurveyUSA show Democratic nominee Deb Haaland maintaining a steady 6- to 8-point lead over Republican Gregg Hull among likely voters, with 9% still undecided less than three weeks before the November 3 election. New Mexico’s Democratic registration edge and Haaland’s consistent strength among women and Hispanic voters have anchored this positioning, while Hull’s support among men and in rural areas has not narrowed the gap since August. High fundraising by Haaland and early voting have reinforced trader expectations for a modest Democratic margin, spreading probability across the 5-15% buckets. Scheduled campaign events and any late shifts among undecided voters remain the primary variables that could alter the final spread.