Alphabet’s elevated consensus estimates for third-quarter results, due after the close on October 28, underpin the 73.5% market-implied probability of missing earnings. Analysts project revenue near $112–128 billion, reflecting 25–29% year-over-year growth driven by Google Cloud expanding roughly 89–93%, yet EPS growth is expected at only 2–6% to around $2.94–$3.03 amid sharply higher capital expenditures now guided at $195–205 billion for 2026. Recent Q2 results showed an EPS shortfall despite strong Cloud operating margins above 35%, and options pricing implies a larger-than-average post-earnings move as traders weigh whether AI-related TPU and infrastructure spending will outpace monetization in the near term.