Anthropic’s targeted mid-November IPO timeline, with formal marketing eyed for the week of November 9 and trading before Thanksgiving, underpins the 68.3% implied probability traders assign to that month. The AI developer behind the Claude large language models confidentially filed its draft S-1 in June, held an October 14 investor day highlighting $16.8 billion in Q3 revenue and adjusted profitability, and faces a tight post-midterm window before holiday slowdowns. Stronger third-quarter results and preparations for a potential public S-1 filing as early as late October have reinforced consensus, though market volatility, regulatory reviews, and any last-minute shifts in conditions could still push the listing into December.