Ontario Premier Doug Ford has repeatedly threatened electricity export cuts or surcharges as leverage in the ongoing US-Canada trade dispute over tariffs, yet no such measures have taken effect by late October 2026. Ontario’s Independent Electricity System Operator recently signed a six-month contract to import 600 megawatts from New York to cover nuclear maintenance, underscoring bidirectional grid dependence that affects roughly 1.5 million US customers in Michigan, New York, and Minnesota. Analysts note that even a full cutoff would raise US prices rather than trigger widespread blackouts, given domestic generation alternatives, while depriving Canadian exporters of revenue. Traders appear to view the rhetoric as negotiation posturing unlikely to produce an actual throttle before year-end, consistent with prior short-lived surcharges that were quickly reversed amid mutual economic exposure.