Recent U.S.-Israel military operations against Iran, ongoing since February 2026, have centered on airstrikes targeting nuclear sites, missile facilities, and energy infrastructure rather than ground forces. As of late October 2026, the Trump administration has directed planning for a short, intensive post-midterm campaign focused on similar objectives, including potential use of large conventional munitions, while maintaining naval presence and diplomatic channels through mediators. Iranian officials have prolonged indirect talks to influence U.S. elections and resist concessions on enrichment or blockades, amid heightened shipping incidents in the Strait of Hormuz. These developments reflect a preference for limited strikes and pressure tactics over large-scale ground commitments, supporting trader consensus that a full U.S. invasion remains unlikely before 2027.