Lebanese government efforts to advance a phased disarmament plan through the army have faced direct rejection from Hezbollah, which opposes any timeline tied to Israeli interests and insists on prior Israeli withdrawal from southern territories. Recent US diplomatic pressure, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s October calls urging accountability for seized explosives and against their return to the group, underscores the international linkage between disarmament and reconstruction funding or further talks. Sporadic border seizures have not halted reported smuggling routes, while stalled trilateral negotiations continue to hinge on sequencing disputes. These developments, alongside EU statements reinforcing state monopoly on arms and upcoming discussions around UNIFIL’s mandate, shape trader assessments of near-term official commitments from Hezbollah leadership.