Elevated core inflation measures near or above the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s 1-3% target band, combined with rebounding oil prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar, represent the primary drivers behind the 91.5% market-implied probability of a 25 basis point Official Cash Rate hike at the October 28 meeting. September-quarter CPI eased to 3.7% year-over-year, below the RBNZ’s 3.9% forecast, yet underlying pressures have firmed and Q4 inflation is projected to reaccelerate above 4%. With the current 2.75% OCR still below revised neutral estimates around 3.5%, trader consensus favors continued gradual tightening to anchor medium-term inflation expectations. A significantly softer-than-expected inflation print or labor-market deterioration could still shift odds toward a hold, though recent data revisions and energy trends have reinforced the case for action.