The closely matched trader consensus around 20–29 ships for the week of October 26 reflects the persistent severe risk environment in the Strait of Hormuz, where Iranian attacks on commercial vessels reached a monthly high in October amid the ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict. AIS-visible traffic has averaged just 4.9 ships per day over the past week—roughly 6% of the pre-crisis baseline—driven by projectile strikes, naval coordination requirements, and many operators shifting to dark transits under U.S. facilitation. Market-implied odds price in limited upside from recent U.S.-escorted flows while assigning meaningful probability to further disruption, with inbound crude tanker activity remaining the key swing factor ahead of any potential escalation or de-escalation signals.