Andrey Gyurov holds a commanding 97% implied probability for second place in Bulgaria’s October 25 presidential first round, reflecting consistent polling across multiple agencies that place the former caretaker prime minister and his running mate behind incumbent Iliana Iotova while well ahead of third-place Kostadin Kostadinov. Gyurov’s ticket draws backing from reformist parties including We Continue the Change and Democratic Bulgaria, with recent surveys showing his share rising modestly to the high 20s as the campaign closed. The 27-candidate field and projected turnout near 40% have left little room for late movement, as undecided voters and smaller tickets remain fragmented. A shift in ordering would require either unusually strong consolidation behind an alternative challenger or turnout patterns that disproportionately boost lower-polling candidates, outcomes that have not materialized in final-week data.