Recent polling from multiple agencies places the leading Iliana Iotova-Kiril Valchev ticket at 41-47 percent, with the nearest rival at 28-31 percent and a third candidate near 12 percent among decided voters. Projected turnout of 37-47 percent falls well below the 50 percent threshold required for an outright first-round victory, which also demands an absolute majority of valid votes under Bulgaria’s two-round system. With 27 registered tickets fragmenting support, no candidate has historically cleared both conditions in a presidential contest. Traders price the implied probability of “No” at 97.8 percent, reflecting this consistent evidence ahead of the October 25 vote. A late surge pushing turnout above 50 percent while consolidating support behind one ticket remains the principal scenario that could still alter the outcome.