Rodri holds the edge in trader sentiment for finishing ahead of Messi at the 2026 Ballon d’Or, driven primarily by his Golden Ball award as the tournament’s standout performer during Spain’s World Cup victory. The Manchester City-turned-Barcelona midfielder anchored the champions with consistent control in midfield, overcoming earlier injury setbacks to peak at the right time. Messi delivered an impressive international swan song at 39, scoring eight goals and adding four assists en route to the final with Argentina, yet the MLS-based club campaign and the narrow defeat in the title match limit his positioning relative to Rodri’s. With voting closed and the October 26 ceremony in London days away, the market reflects Rodri’s stronger combination of recent major international hardware and club pedigree as the decisive factors.