**AutoZone's Q1 fiscal 2027 domestic same-store sales (ending late November 2026) face pressure from softening DIY demand amid consumer caution.** Management guided for relatively flat results in the quarter following the September 22, 2026 earnings release, citing customers deferring repairs and trading down, which produced a 0.6% decline in domestic DIY comps in Q4 fiscal 2026 even as commercial sales rose 8.6%. Overall domestic comps reached 1.6% that quarter, down from 4.1% in Q3 and 3.4% in Q2, reflecting a clear sequential slowdown. The market-implied odds cluster in the 0.5–2.5% range because traders weigh this guidance against potential stabilization from ~4% expected average ticket growth and commercial momentum, while noting the risk of further weakness if macro conditions deteriorate. Q1 results, due around December 8, will serve as the key catalyst, with any deviation from the flat-to-low-single-digit full-year outlook likely shifting probabilities sharply.