Amazon's Q3 2026 earnings, scheduled for release after the close on October 29, show consensus EPS estimates around $1.96–$2.00 and revenue near $202 billion, slightly above the company's prior guidance range. Accelerating AWS growth—up 36.7% year-over-year in Q2 with sell-side forecasts pointing to 37–41% for the current quarter—serves as the primary driver supporting the 58.5% market-implied probability of a beat. Recent quarters demonstrate a strong track record of outperformance, bolstered by AI infrastructure demand and margin expansion, though elevated expectations and a recent stock pullback from highs introduce some uncertainty. Traders price in this skin-in-the-game consensus ahead of the key catalyst.