Ukraine's firm rejection of territorial concessions in Donbas, where Russian forces control roughly 88% of the region, underpins trader consensus against any agreement before 2027. Kyiv has repeatedly stated it will not cede remaining Ukrainian-held areas in Donetsk and Luhansk, favoring a freeze along current lines instead, while Moscow conditions renewed talks on full control of the rest of Donbas as a core demand. Recent US-mediated contacts, including Miami briefings and Abu Dhabi discussions, have produced no breakthroughs, with Ukrainian officials signaling openness to ceasefires but resistance to withdrawals without security guarantees. Ongoing Ukrainian counteroffensives and Russian insistence on maximalist terms further reduce near-term prospects for voluntary cession. Late diplomatic shifts or battlefield reversals could still alter trajectories before the deadline.